The world is at a critical juncture in its fight against climate change. As the impacts of global warming become increasingly evident through rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting ecosystems, the urgency to transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner, renewable sources of energy has never been greater. The 21st century presents an opportunity to shift the global energy paradigm toward sustainability, decarbonization, and resilience, but realizing this shift will require ambitious and coordinated action at all levels of government, business, and society.
Two of the key players in this global transition are the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), the latter of which includes the COP28 summit held in 2023. Both entities are crucial in setting the stage for renewable energy expansion, charting the course for nations and industries worldwide to decarbonize their energy systems and meet climate goals. The IEA’s energy outlooks and COP negotiations provide a roadmap for nations and businesses to follow, balancing the growing demand for energy with the urgent need to tackle climate change.
At the heart of these efforts is renewable energy—the key to decarbonizing the global economy and securing a sustainable future. From wind, solar, and geothermal to hydropower and biomass, renewable energy sources are poised to play an increasingly dominant role in the global energy mix. However, this transformation comes with significant challenges, including policy coordination, financing, and technological innovation. To understand the scale and complexity of this transition, we must delve deeper into the renewable energy expansion goals set by the IEA and COP28 and explore the implications of these ambitious targets for global energy systems, economic growth, and climate resilience.
The Role of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Renewable Energy Expansion
The International Energy Agency (IEA), established in 1974, is an autonomous agency that provides data, policy advice, and technology recommendations to its 30 member countries. While the IEA’s initial mandate was centered around ensuring energy security, its role has expanded significantly over the years to include the promotion of clean energy and climate action. In recent decades, the agency has become one of the world’s leading organizations in driving global energy transitions, and its reports—particularly the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO)—serve as key resources for policymakers, businesses, and civil society actors involved in the energy sector.
The IEA has been a vocal advocate for the acceleration of renewable energy adoption and the decarbonization of the global energy system. Its Net Zero by 2050 roadmap, released in 2021, emphasizes that renewable energy must be the cornerstone of any successful effort to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. According to the IEA’s analysis, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires the world to dramatically ramp up investments in renewable energy infrastructure, as well as electrification, energy storage, and grid modernization.
Renewable Energy in the IEA’s Vision for 2030
The IEA’s vision for renewable energy expansion by 2030 is nothing short of ambitious. In its World Energy Investment Report and World Energy Outlook, the agency has stressed the need to increase the share of renewable energy in global electricity generation, with solar and wind taking the lead. By 2030, the IEA projects that nearly 90% of global electricity could come from renewable sources, up from just over 30% today.
This ambitious goal is based on several key assumptions, including:
- Rapid Scaling of Solar and Wind Power: The IEA envisions solar and wind as the primary drivers of the renewable energy transition, with solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity set to increase by 700% by 2050. Wind power, both onshore and offshore, is expected to grow significantly, with offshore wind alone projected to increase from 60 gigawatts (GW) today to 300 GW by 2030.
- Electricity Storage and Grid Modernization: A critical challenge to renewable energy expansion is the intermittency of solar and wind power. To overcome this, the IEA has highlighted the importance of investing in energy storage technologies such as batteries, pumped hydro storage, and thermal storage. Additionally, grid modernization—upgrading transmission and distribution systems to better integrate renewable energy—is essential to ensure that electricity generated from renewable sources can be delivered reliably to consumers.
- Decarbonizing Industry and Transport: The IEA recognizes that the transition to renewable energy must extend beyond the power sector to achieve net-zero emissions. Heavy industries such as cement, steel, and chemicals must reduce their reliance on fossil fuels through electrification and the use of green hydrogen. Similarly, the transportation sector must undergo a transformation with the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the development of clean fuels like hydrogen.
- Investment in Clean Energy Research and Innovation: Achieving the IEA’s renewable energy expansion goals will require substantial investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) to improve existing technologies and develop new solutions. The agency has called for a fivefold increase in clean energy innovation investments to accelerate breakthroughs in areas such as grid storage, hydrogen, and carbon capture.
The IEA’s 2030 renewable energy expansion vision aligns with the goals set under the Paris Agreement and supports global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, achieving these ambitious goals will require political will, financial resources, and international cooperation.
COP28: Shaping the Global Climate Agenda
The annual Conference of the Parties (COP) is the foremost global platform for climate negotiations, bringing together leaders from governments, civil society, and the private sector to negotiate and set international climate policy. COP28, held in 2023 in Dubai, marked a significant moment in the international climate process, as countries were called to strengthen their commitments to tackling climate change and accelerating the transition to renewable energy.
One of the key themes of COP28 was climate finance, particularly the need for developed countries to deliver on their promises of $100 billion per year in climate-related financing to support developing nations in their transition to clean energy. This focus on financing is critical because many developing countries face significant barriers to renewable energy adoption, including limited access to capital, inadequate infrastructure, and a lack of technical expertise.
At COP28, there was also a renewed emphasis on renewable energy technologies, with numerous initiatives launched to accelerate their deployment. Several multilateral organizations, including the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), outlined plans to scale up investments in clean energy and ensure that affordable, reliable, and modern energy is accessible to all people, particularly in the Global South. The commitment to energy justice—ensuring that the benefits of renewable energy are equitably distributed—is a central theme in COP28’s broader approach to climate action.
Key COP28 Goals for Renewable Energy Expansion
- Doubling Renewable Energy Investment by 2030: One of the key outcomes of COP28 was a global agreement to double the level of renewable energy investment by 2030, aiming to unlock trillions of dollars in financing for clean energy projects. This is expected to catalyze major infrastructure projects, including large-scale solar and wind farms, hydropower plants, and energy storage systems. The agreement also seeks to strengthen the role of private sector investors, governments, and international financial institutions in mobilizing capital for clean energy initiatives.
- Enhanced Climate Targets for 2030: COP28 also saw countries committing to more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which include updated climate targets for 2030. Many nations pledged to increase the share of renewable energy in their national power grids, and some countries, such as the European Union and the United States, committed to reaching 100% renewable energy for their electricity sectors by 2035 or earlier.
- Global Clean Energy Partnership: To foster international collaboration, COP28 introduced a new global partnership for clean energy, focusing on knowledge sharing, technology transfer, and capacity-building. This partnership will be crucial for accelerating the deployment of renewable energy in developing nations, where energy access remains a significant challenge.
- Decarbonizing the Industrial Sector: COP28 also placed significant emphasis on decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, such as cement, steel, and heavy transport, through the development of clean hydrogen and other green technologies. A global agreement was reached to invest in green hydrogen as a critical part of the decarbonization strategy, with countries agreeing to build hydrogen pipelines and create international markets for green hydrogen.
- Energy Equity and Just Transition: Another central aspect of the COP28 agenda was the concept of a just energy transition. This involves ensuring that the shift to renewable energy is fair and equitable, leaving no one behind. Special attention was given to providing clean energy access in the Global South, supporting vulnerable communities, and creating green
